AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 7c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
One alpha wallet conviction-shorted Renan Santos at 95c NO, signaling expectation of near-certain defeat in round one. The 7c YES price confirms market consensus aligns with the wallet's directional read, though the late entry near ceiling leaves minimal upside and reflects yield-harvest positioning rather than fresh directional alpha.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xfcf2..69 | Retail | NO | $1.9K | 0% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$91 on $1.9K capital deployed (avg +4.8%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $223.2K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |