Geopolitics

Resolves: Dec 2026 7 months left Volume: $1.7M

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 12% YES on Polymarket with $1.7M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?'?

OddsShift tracks 5 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 10c YES. 7 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

88c

YES

12c

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES).

Price has been stable at 12% since 2026-04-14

Traded on Polymarket — $1.7M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $1.7M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 12c YES.

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On this market: 7/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

STRONG OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 89c

7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 10c vs market 12c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 12c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

7 of 7 Models Agree: NO

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH Bayesian Update	NO	93c	—
MATH PIN Model	NO	98c	—
MATH Compound Signal	NO	82c	—
AI Claude Analysis	NO	94c	88%
AI DeepSeek Quant	NO	92c	82%
AI Gemini Flash	NO	85c	70%
AI Kimi Macro	NO	88c	70%

7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (82–98c vs 88c). Claude Analysis leads with 88% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 90c — market prices it at 88c. 2-point gap supports NO.

5 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money built NO between 66-74c and has been validated by an 80%+ price decline, signaling high conviction that Pahlavi does not enter Iran by Dec 31. The complete absence of YES entries from tracked wallets — even at 12c — suggests no informed buyer views the residual probability as mispriced; the path of least resistance is continued drift toward zero.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$6.2K	+16%
This Market Entered at 74c → now 88c (+16%), $6.2K on NO Activity · 11 events · Mar 06 → May 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 06BUYNO67+$1,350$1,350 Mar 14BUYNO75+$938$2,451 Mar 15SELLNO76−$440$2,042 Mar 23SELLNO73−$40$1,921 Mar 27BUYNO77+$830$2,857 Mar 31BUYNO74+$4,716$7,462 Apr 07BUYNO82+$302$8,571 Apr 07SELLNO81−$162$8,304 Apr 12BUYNO85+$964$9,678 May 09SELLNO88−$2,085$7,935 May 19SELLNO87−$1,740$6,105 Realized+$610 Unrealized+$984 Total Profit+$1,593 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1008) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	NO	$3.5K	+20%
This Market Entered at 74c → now 88c (+20%), $3.5K on NO Activity · 1 event · Mar 30 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 30BUYNO74+$2,895$2,895 Realized— Unrealized+$567 Total Profit+$567 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1618) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc021..a8 ★	MM	NO	$2.7K	+21%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 73c → now 88c (+21%), $2.7K on NO Activity · 1 event · Mar 12 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 12BUYNO73+$2,190$2,190 Realized— Unrealized+$465 Total Profit+$465 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1232) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	NO	$2.4K	+27%
This Market Entered at 70c → now 88c (+27%), $2.4K on NO Activity · 2 events · Mar 03 → Mar 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 03BUYNO68+$428$428 Mar 23BUYNO70+$1,429$1,869 Realized— Unrealized+$506 Total Profit+$506 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1040) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	MM	NO	$1.3K	+34%
This Market Entered at 66c → now 88c (+34%), $1.3K on NO Activity · 1 event · Mar 03 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 03BUYNO66+$936$936 Realized— Unrealized+$322 Total Profit+$322 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1532) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

All 5 tracked wallets sit on NO positions entered at 66-74c, now deep in profit as YES collapsed to 12c. Zero YES exposure among smart money means no profitable longs defending the price — the entire tracked cohort is paid to see this fade further, with no counter-pressure from informed capital.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 2 Cents

Polymarket prices YES at 12c while Kalshi has it at 10c — a 2-cent gap within normal range. Our model estimates fair value at 10c.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	12c	$1.7M
Kalshi	10c	—
Our Model	10c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 12% YES with $1.7M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

OddsShift tracks 5 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 10c YES. 7 models agree on direction.