Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?'?

As of September 2026, prediction markets price this at 5% YES on Polymarket with $2.3M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?'?

OddsShift tracks 5 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

95c

YES

As of September 9, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?” at 5% YES with $2.3M traded. 5 tracked wallets hold a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.

Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: will reza pahlavi enter iran by december 31?.

Down from 10% to 5% since 2026-05-25 (-5pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $2.3M Volume

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Smart-money wallets: 5 tracked wallets positioned NO. Backed by $2.3M in trading volume.

PRO Analysis

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HOLD · NO ENTRY AI VERDICT

HOLD

Smart money entered NO at 66c–95c. 80% of NO wallets in profit.

— TARGET YIELD

4 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 5 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 4 market makers are providing $14K in liquidity, primarily on NO. All 1 positioned NO — unanimous.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xc021..a8 ★	Smart	NO	$2.9K	+30%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 73c → now 95c (+30%), $2.9K on NO Activity · 1 event · Mar 12 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 12BUYNO73+$2,190$2,190 Realized— Unrealized+$660 Total Profit+$660 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1132 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$7.9K	+22%
This Market Entered at 77c → now 95c (+22%), $7.9K on NO Activity · 13 events · Mar 06 → Jul 17 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 06BUYNO67+$1,350$1,350 Mar 14BUYNO75+$938$2,451 Mar 15SELLNO76−$440$2,042 Mar 23SELLNO73−$40$1,921 Mar 27BUYNO77+$830$2,857 Mar 31BUYNO74+$4,716$7,462 Apr 07BUYNO82+$302$8,571 Apr 07SELLNO81−$162$8,304 Apr 12BUYNO85+$964$9,678 May 09SELLNO88−$2,085$7,935 May 19SELLNO87−$1,740$6,105 Jun 19BUYNO93+$1,434$7,960 Jul 17SELLNO93−$232$7,727 Realized+$647 Unrealized+$1,532 Total Profit+$2,180 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1240) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	NO	$2.9K	—
This Market Entered at 95c, $2.9K on NO Activity · 3 events · Mar 03 → Aug 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 03BUYNO68+$428$428 Mar 23BUYNO70+$1,429$1,869 Aug 19BUYNO95+$2,850$5,386 Realized— Unrealized— Total Profit— Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1184) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xa8af..5e	MM	NO	$1.9K	+4%
This Market Entered at 91c → now 95c (+4%), $1.9K on NO Activity · 1 event · Jun 12 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 12BUYNO91+$1,820$1,820 Realized— Unrealized+$80 Total Profit+$80 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1446) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	MM	NO	$1.4K	+44%
This Market Entered at 66c → now 95c (+44%), $1.4K on NO Activity · 1 event · Mar 03 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 03BUYNO66+$936$936 Realized— Unrealized+$414 Total Profit+$414 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1668) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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80% of NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 66c–95c. At current price 5c, all YES buyers are underwater while 80% of NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

80% in profit

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 5 Cents

Polymarket prices YES at 5c while Kalshi has it at 10c — a 5-cent gap. Kalshi traders are more bullish on YES. Our model estimates fair value at 5c.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	5c	$2.3M
Kalshi	10c	—
Our Model	5c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

As of September 2026, Polymarket prices this at 5% YES with $2.3M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

OddsShift tracks 5 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.