AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 19c |
62%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 41c |
18%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 19c |
72%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 35c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 30c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 29c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 51c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $1.7K | +2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,647 on $1.7K capital deployed (avg +95.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 52c | $233.0K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 29c | — | × missed |