As of September 8, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?” at 18% YES with $50K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 18% probability to: will russia announce a new forced mobilization by october 31, 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/8 models agree on NO, fair value 15c vs market 18c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 18c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 90c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 91c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 69c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 87c | 68% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 88c | 68% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | ??? | 32c | 48% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 72% |
7 of 8 models estimate NO fair value above market (69–91c vs 82c). Gemini Flash leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 85c — market prices it at 82c. 3-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet shows NO entries exclusively at 84c, signaling a strong conviction against mobilization but at a price that leaves no margin for error. This positioning implies smart money sees mobilization as highly unlikely, yet their late entry at near-peak NO prices suggests they are either hedging or expect a rapid repricing, which could cap YES upside if the wallet holds.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $1.1K | -2% |
All tracked positions are underwater, with NO holders buying at 84c facing a 66c unrealized loss per share if held to resolution, while YES holders at current levels have no profitable entries, indicating recent buyers are trapped. The absence of any profitable cohort suggests the market has moved against all recent participants, with NO's high entry cost creating potential resistance to further downside unless new capital enters.
Polymarket prices YES at 18c with $50K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 15c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 18c | $50K |
| Our Model | 15c | — |