AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 7 of 8 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
78%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 18c |
55%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 5c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
78%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 9c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 89c, signaling conviction that a new forced mobilization will not be announced by the October 31, 2026 deadline. This smart-money entry implies the market's dominant expectation is continued avoidance of a politically costly mobilization call, keeping YES priced as a low-probability tail.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $4.0K | +6% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$480 on $4.0K capital deployed (avg +12.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $271.4K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 9c | — | ✓ matched |