As of September 5, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?” at 5% YES with $75K traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: will russia announce a new forced mobilization by september 30, 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo8/8 models agree on NO, fair value 9c vs market 5c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 5c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 97c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 97c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 95c | 82% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 96c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 96c | 88% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 82% |
8 of 8 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–97c vs 95c). Gemini Flash leads with 88% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 91c — market prices it at 95c. 4-point gap supports YES.
Smart money is uniformly positioned on NO, with entries at 94c indicating high conviction that no forced mobilization will occur by the deadline. This near-certainty pricing suggests informed traders have assessed political, economic, or logistical barriers as prohibitive. The lack of YES entries among tracked wallets signals no contrarian accumulation, reinforcing bearish sentiment on YES and pointing to continued price suppression unless new information emerges.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0a79..05 | Smart | NO | $2.3K | +1% | |
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $4.7K | +0% |
All tracked NO positions are in profit, with entries at 94c, while no YES positions are profitable, reflecting a market heavily favoring the status quo. The 5c YES price implies traders see minimal risk of mobilization, and the dominance of profitable NO holders suggests strong resistance to upward YES movement, as any rally would face selling from entrenched NO positions. Price support for YES is weak, with NO holders unlikely to exit unless the probability shifts dramatically.
Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $75K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 9c. 4-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $75K |
| Our Model | 9c | — |