AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 7 of 7 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 18c |
42%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 4c |
88%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
82%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 9c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is uniformly positioned on NO, with entries at 94c indicating high conviction that no forced mobilization will occur by the deadline. This near-certainty pricing suggests informed traders have assessed political, economic, or logistical barriers as prohibitive. The lack of YES entries among tracked wallets signals no contrarian accumulation, reinforcing bearish sentiment on YES and pointing to continued price suppression unless new information emerges.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0a79..05 | Smart | NO | $2.3K | +1% | |
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $4.7K | +0% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$436 on $7.1K capital deployed (avg +6.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $163.2K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 9c | — | ✓ matched |