AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 88c |
62%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 42c |
68%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 85c |
80%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 15c |
72%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 66c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 44c, roughly half the current price, signaling early conviction that Russia would reach Dobropillia by December 31. With 100% of its YES exposure in profit and no NO hedge, this smart-money positioning points firmly toward continued YES dominance and further upside if the event resolves true.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd5cc..a4 | MM | YES | $1.2K | +75% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,479 on $1.2K capital deployed (avg +125.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 89c | $169.4K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 66c | — | ✓ matched |