AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 16c |
68%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
87%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
92%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 7c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is one-sided and passive: the lone wallet's 94c NO entry is a bet that Alito does not announce retirement by July 15, 2026 — the overwhelmingly likely status-quo outcome for a sitting justice with no retirement signals. This is a low-alpha, high-probability positioning typical of yield-style NO deployment, so it confirms direction (NO) without offering a strong independent edge signal.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $1.0K | -2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$62 on $1.0K capital deployed (avg +6.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $1.6M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 7c | — | ✓ matched |