AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
85%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
82%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 6c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is unambiguously positioned against a retirement announcement, holding NO from 78c with no directional YES entries to counterbalance. This lone-wallet conviction signals the tracked trader treats an Alito retirement by September 30 as a near-certain non-event. The absence of any profitable YES position reinforces a one-sided read: the edge is in fading the retirement narrative.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x6bab..92 ★ | MM | NO | $2.2K | +21% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$608 on $2.2K capital deployed (avg +28.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $1.5M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 6c | — | ✓ matched |