AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
75%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 18c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 12c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 7c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 8c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The lone tracked wallet entered NO at 86c, signaling early conviction that a Saudi strike on Iran was implausible within the April window. Smart money positioning is directionally clean with no hedged YES exposure, reinforcing a continued drift toward 0c resolution. The 86c entry implies the wallet saw this as a high-probability fade rather than a speculative short.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd48a..90 ★ | MM | NO | $4.0K | +10% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$646 on $4.0K capital deployed (avg +16.3%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $604.3K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 8c | — | ✓ matched |