AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 89c |
78%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 82c |
68%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 82c |
45%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | ??? | 54c |
28%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 82c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 82c |
75%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 78c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 89c, signaling a bullish conviction on Moro but at a price now 11c above market, which suggests either poor timing or a long-term hold through volatility. With no NO entries from this wallet, its positioning is unambiguously directional and does not hedge against a loss. The entry at 89c indicates this wallet expects Moro to win and views the current 78c as a discount, but the lack of additional wallets means this signal is thin and should be weighted cautiously.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | YES | $2.3K | -13% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$289 on $2.3K capital deployed (avg +12.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 78c | $210.9K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 78c | — | ✓ matched |