Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 90%: Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as likely (90% YES). Elon Musk’s rocket and AI company is expected to acquire the buzzy AI coding startup shortly after it goes public.

What’s Happening

AI coding startup Cursor has reached $4 billion in annualized revenue in the past week, up from $3 billion in late April and $2 billion in February, according to a person familiar with the matter. The revenue acceleration comes as Elon Musk's SpaceX prepares its Nasdaq debut on June 12, with the rocket and AI company widely expected to acquire the buzzy coding startup shortly after going public. The trajectory positions Cursor as one of the fastest-scaling enterprise software companies on record, having tripled annualized revenue inside four months ahead of the anticipated SpaceX acquire Cursor transaction. [Forbes, Jun 08]

SpaceX disclosed in April that it had secured an option to acquire Cursor for $60 billion, a figure Reuters confirmed this week as Cursor announced it will open its European headquarters in London and hire approximately 200 staff. The expansion underscores Cursor's operational independence ahead of the deal closing, with executives citing rising European demand for tools that automate software development. The SpaceX acquire Cursor structure — a pre-negotiated option rather than an outright agreement — gives Musk's company flexibility to execute the purchase on its own timeline following the IPO. Competition in the segment is intensifying, with Stockholm-based rival Lovable in talks to raise funding at a $12 billion valuation after crossing $400 million in ARR in February. [Global Banking & Finance, Jun 09]

SpaceX is marketing its IPO at a fixed price of $135 per share, implying a $1.75 trillion valuation that would place the firm as the seventh-largest U.S. company, ahead of Tesla's roughly $1.6 trillion market capitalization. Ahead of the listing, SpaceX has stacked compute commitments that bolster the cash position needed to execute the SpaceX acquire Cursor option: Google agreed on June 5 to pay $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029 for access to approximately 110,000 NVIDIA GPUs, mirroring a separate $1.25 billion-per-month arrangement with Anthropic disclosed in late May. The combined contracts, alongside IPO proceeds, give SpaceX the balance-sheet capacity to close the $60 billion Cursor option before the December 31, 2026 deadline. [CNBC, Jun 03]

Traded on Polymarket — $76K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($76K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 90c YES.