Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 11%: Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (11% YES). Oppenheimer launches Wall Street's first coverage of SpaceX with bullish outlook.

What’s Happening

SpaceX is set to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX on June 12, 2026, with shares priced at $135 apiece — a level that implies a fully diluted valuation of approximately $1.77 trillion and would make Elon Musk's rocket and satellite operator the seventh-most valuable American company. The offering size of roughly $75 billion ranks among the largest debuts on record, and the pricing was confirmed in the final week before listing despite a turbulent tape. Whether spacex's valuation hit (low) $1.35t threshold holds depends on how aggressively the market discounts the IPO price between listing day and June 30. [Space, Jun 05]

Valuation skepticism crystallized when NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran, often called the "Dean of Valuation," published an analysis pegging SpaceX's intrinsic worth at between $1.25 trillion and $1.35 trillion — a range that sits 24% to 29% below the $1.77 trillion IPO mark. Damodaran cited assumptions around Starlink subscriber growth, Starship commercialization timelines, and reinvestment intensity as the principal drivers of the gap. The note landed the same weekend that a broader market rout erased $1.4 trillion in S&P 500 capitalization on Friday, June 5, tightening the pricing window heading into the listing and raising the question of whether spacex's valuation hit (low) $1.35t outcome could materialize within the first two weeks of trading. [CNBC, Jun 07]

Counter-positioning arrived on June 11 when Oppenheimer became the first global brokerage to initiate Wall Street coverage of SpaceX, issuing an "outperform" rating with a $190 price target — roughly 41% above the $135 IPO price and implying a market capitalization closer to $2.5 trillion. The bullish initiation focused on Starlink's recurring revenue scale and projected Starship launch cadence through 2027. With the deadline of June 30 leaving only thirteen trading sessions after listing for spacex's valuation hit (low) $1.35t scenario to resolve, the practical hurdle is a roughly 24% drawdown from the offer price within that window — a move that would require either a syndicate-supported price break, a sector-wide repricing, or a sharp post-IPO unwind. [Reuters, Jun 11]

Traded on Polymarket — $69K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($69K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 5c YES.