AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
78%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 35c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 15c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money entered NO at 83c — a high-conviction fade of the visit narrative — and the 75c collapse to 8c validates that read. The absence of any YES entries signals one-sided positioning: tracked capital treats this as a near-resolved NO.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa8af..5e | MM | NO | $1.1K | +10% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$219 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg +20.8%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $68.0K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 15c | — | ✓ matched |