Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Prediction markets put the probability at 63%: Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting. Currently, markets are divided (63% YES, 37% NO). The secretary of state is busy remaking his department as a tool of MAGA and white racial authoritarianism.

What’s Happening

On May 1, 2026, US President Donald Trump stated he is “not satisfied” with Iran’s latest proposal, which was submitted through Pakistani mediators on April 30. This development follows a period of heightened military tensions, including Iranian attacks on US ships in the Strait of Hormuz and a subsequent tenuous ceasefire. The question of whether Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting has become a central point of uncertainty, as the US Special Envoy to the Middle East had sent amendments to Iran’s previous proposal on April 27. The Iranian response to those amendments is now being reviewed, with an unspecified regional source telling Axios on May 1 that Tehran delivered its formal reply. [Institute for the Study of War, May 01]

The diplomatic landscape is further complicated by the conspicuous absence of Secretary of State Marco Rubio from the negotiations, with Vice President JD Vance instead taking the lead in talks with the Islamic Republic. This shift has raised questions about the administration’s chain of command and whether Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting will be a decision made by the White House or the State Department. Meanwhile, Senator Lindsey Graham has floated the idea of additional US attacks against Iran’s “war machine,” suggesting that a large but brief military effort would be justified. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated on May 5 that the ceasefire “is not over,” but acknowledged that tensions remain high as the US Navy continues escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz. [NBC News, May 05]

The structural factor that will determine whether Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting hinges on the administration’s dual-track strategy of military pressure and conditional diplomacy. President Trump has stated he does not want to leave the Iran conflict “unfinished,” while critics argue that the war of choice has exposed the limits of American power in the Middle East. The New York Post editorial board has urged the Trump team to “finish the Iran war,” reflecting a hawkish push for decisive action. However, any diplomatic solution remains contingent on Iran’s willingness to accept US terms, as outlined in the amendments sent by Witkoff. The next meeting—if it occurs—will likely serve as a critical test of whether the ceasefire can hold or if the region will slide back into open conflict. [New York Post, May 05]

Traded on Polymarket — $127K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 66c YES with $127K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.