Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 40%: Will STRC hit $100 by September 30. Currently, markets are divided (40% YES, 60% NO). The honest answer is: not yet, but the conditions for ending it are in place and measurable.

What’s Happening

Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock, STRC, is trading at approximately $95.55 as of Monday morning, putting it within a 4.5% gain of its $100 par value target. The company has $785.2 million in buyback ammunition remaining, and CEO Michael Saylor has publicly committed to a September 8 target date for bringing the instrument to par. This follows a recent sale of 1,690 Bitcoin below cost, a move that narrowed the gap to just $4.45 from par, signaling management’s willingness to deploy capital aggressively to support the price. The question of whether STRC will hit $100 by September 30 hinges on sustained buying pressure over the next several weeks, with the current market pricing a 40% probability of success against a 60% chance of falling short. [Techtimes, Mon Aug 10]

The instrument’s design is central to the dynamics at play. STRC was launched on July 30, 2025, and has risen about 8% since its debut, trading near $97 in early September of that year. It pays a variable cash dividend, currently at an effective yield of 10.3%, and was engineered to maintain price stability around its $100 par value through monthly rate adjustments. In June 2026, shareholders approved a shift to semi-monthly dividend payments, a change CEO Phong Le said was designed to “stabilize price, dampen cyclicality, drive liquidity, and grow demand.” However, the stock has also demonstrated volatility, closing 11% under par at $89 on June 17, 2026, before recovering. The path for STRC to hit $100 by September 30 depends on whether the buyback program and dividend schedule can overcome that historical price swings. [CoinDesk, Wed Sep 03]

The stakes extend beyond the preferred stock itself. When STRC trades above par, Strategy can issue new shares to fund additional Bitcoin purchases, a program currently paused while the instrument sits at a discount. The company’s at-the-money issuance mechanism is a key lever for future capital deployment, and reaching $100 would unlock that funding channel. The September 30 deadline is therefore not just a price target but a gateway for Strategy’s broader treasury operations. With the dividend now paid semi-monthly and the buyback program active, the next two weeks will be critical in determining whether the 40% probability assigned to STRC hitting $100 by September 30 materializes, or whether the instrument remains below par into the fourth quarter. [The Block, Mon Jun 08]

Traded on Polymarket — $296K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 42c YES with $296K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.