AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 9c |
66%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
88%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 12c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 10c |
90%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
82%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 65c, signaling conviction that STRC will not reach $100 by September 30. With no YES entries from this wallet, smart money is unambiguously bearish on the upside target. This lone but profitable NO position reinforces the dominant-side bias and suggests the market expects the contract to expire worthless for YES.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5188..04 | MM | NO | $7.8K | +32% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$4,224 on $7.8K capital deployed (avg +54.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $786.6K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |