Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?

As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?” at 8% YES with $83K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES). Prediction markets now see only a 10% chance that Stripe will acquire any part of PayPal in 2026, down from 70% earlier this year.

What’s Happening

The probability that Stripe will acquire any part of PayPal in 2026 has collapsed to **9%** on major prediction platforms, down from a summer peak of **70%**, following the formal withdrawal of a joint bid by Stripe and private equity firm Advent International. The consortium’s offer of **$60.50 per share**, valuing PayPal at over **$53 billion**, was rejected by PayPal’s board in late July as insufficient, with directors seeking closer to **$70 per share**. After the deal collapsed on **August 28, 2026**, PayPal shares dropped approximately **12%**, and traders rapidly repriced the likelihood of any transaction, including a partial carve-out of assets like Braintree or Hyperwallet, to near-zero [Proactiveinvestors, Aug 28].

The collapse marks a dramatic reversal for a deal that had been in active discussion since **February 2026**, when Stripe—valued at around **$159 billion**—first expressed interest in acquiring parts of the struggling payments incumbent. PayPal’s new CEO, **Enrique Lores**, who took over in **March 2026**, has since pivoted to a standalone strategy centered on a business reorganization and a **$1.5 billion** cost-cutting program, aiming to boost shareholder value without a sale. The board’s rejection of the **$60.50** bid, backed by approximately **$50 billion** in committed bank financing, signaled that management believed a higher valuation was achievable through operational improvements rather than an immediate transaction [CNBC, Jul 15].

Looking ahead, the **9%** probability reflects market consensus that a Stripe acquisition of any part of PayPal in 2026 is highly unlikely, though not impossible. PayPal’s **Q2 2026 revenue** of **$8.68 billion**, up **4.8%** year-over-year, and its disappointing full-year profit guidance—projected to decline by a low-single-digit percentage—continue to pressure the stock. Analysts are watching whether Lores’ reorganization can deliver tangible results by year-end, or whether renewed interest from other suitors emerges. The withdrawal of Stripe and Advent leaves PayPal without an obvious buyer, and the company’s board has stated it remains open to strategic alternatives, but no formal process has been announced [24/7 Wall St., Aug 15].

Traded on Polymarket — $83K Volume