As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?” at 22% YES with $15.3M traded. 6 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is YES.
The House passed H.R.3633 in July 2025, but the bill stalled in the Senate, making enactment into law this year unlikely.
The market on whether the Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026 will resolve "Yes" only if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 is passed by both chambers of Congress and signed by December 31, 2026, with congress.gov as the settlement source. As of mid-2026, the bill had cleared the U.S. House and advanced through the Senate Banking Committee, but it had not received a full Senate floor vote or a presidential signature. Sentiment has swung sharply: earlier in 2026 the odds sat above 80%, and a May deal on stablecoin yield briefly pushed "Yes" to roughly 69%. [CryptoSlate, Jul 31]
Momentum then reversed. By August 11, "Yes" traded at just 14% against total volume of $11.4M and liquidity near $380K. On August 27, a newly created Polymarket wallet staked roughly $818,000 on the CLARITY Act not becoming law this year, reinforcing the collapse in the chance that the Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026 becomes reality. The legislation still faces a crucial September 15 cloture vote in the Senate, but unresolved friction points — ethics rules, stablecoin rewards and illicit-finance provisions — continue to weigh on its path. [Coingape, Aug 11]
The outcome matters because the bill would establish a federal framework dividing digital-asset oversight and define the "mature blockchain" test that determines when a token is treated as a commodity rather than a security. With the market close date set for January 1, 2027, the near-term catalyst is whether the Senate can secure the votes to advance the measure past cloture and reconcile the remaining provisions before year-end. Absent a floor vote and presidential signature, the market resolves "No." [Finance, Aug 27]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moTracked wallets are positioned YES, but 5/7 models estimate NO. Wallets and models disagree — no entry.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 62c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 81c | 63% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 82c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 48c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 75c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 85c | 72% |
5 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (62–85c vs 80c). Gemini Flash leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 77c — market prices it at 80c. 3-point gap supports YES.
Tracked wallets show dominant YES accumulation at 14c-17c, signaling smart money positioned early for a Clarity Act signing and now sitting on gains. The single NO cohort at 86c is underwater, suggesting late contrarian entries that have been punished by the market's directional drift. Net positioning implies informed flow favors eventual passage, though the thin wallet sample warrants caution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd039..32 | Smart | YES | $2.8K | +2% | |
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | YES | $101.0K | +64% | |
| 0xde7b..4b | MM | YES | $14.3K | +34% | |
| 0x5188..04 | MM | YES | $9.0K | +35% | |
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $1.1K | -10% | |
| 0x47ab..df | MM | YES | $1.1K | +36% |
All YES positions entered at 14c-17c are in profit against the current 20c mark, while NO entries at 86c sit underwater as the price has drifted lower. This asymmetry gives YES holders a cushion to hold or add without pressure to exit, reinforcing bid support near 20c. The absence of profitable NO wallets removes a natural source of selling pressure that would otherwise cap upside.
Polymarket prices YES at 22c with $15.3M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 23c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 22c | $15.3M |
| Our Model | 23c | — |