As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?” at 14% YES with $14.1M traded. 4 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is YES.
The House passed H.R.3633 in July 2025, but the bill stalled in the Senate, making enactment into law this year unlikely.
The market on whether the Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026 will resolve "Yes" only if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 is passed by both chambers of Congress and signed by December 31, 2026, with congress.gov as the settlement source. As of mid-2026, the bill had cleared the U.S. House and advanced through the Senate Banking Committee, but it had not received a full Senate floor vote or a presidential signature. Sentiment has swung sharply: earlier in 2026 the odds sat above 80%, and a May deal on stablecoin yield briefly pushed "Yes" to roughly 69%. [CryptoSlate, Jul 31]
Momentum then reversed. By August 11, "Yes" traded at just 14% against total volume of $11.4M and liquidity near $380K. On August 27, a newly created Polymarket wallet staked roughly $818,000 on the CLARITY Act not becoming law this year, reinforcing the collapse in the chance that the Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026 becomes reality. The legislation still faces a crucial September 15 cloture vote in the Senate, but unresolved friction points — ethics rules, stablecoin rewards and illicit-finance provisions — continue to weigh on its path. [Coingape, Aug 11]
The outcome matters because the bill would establish a federal framework dividing digital-asset oversight and define the "mature blockchain" test that determines when a token is treated as a commodity rather than a security. With the market close date set for January 1, 2027, the near-term catalyst is whether the Senate can secure the votes to advance the measure past cloture and reconcile the remaining provisions before year-end. Absent a floor vote and presidential signature, the market resolves "No." [Finance, Aug 27]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moModels see 48-point mispricing — fair value 66c vs market 18c. BUY YES at 18c — models see 48c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 90c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 64c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 35c | 40% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 42c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 78c | 75% |
2 of 5 models estimate YES fair value above market (42–90c vs 18c). Grok Contrarian leads with 61% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 66c — market prices it at 18c. 48-point gap supports YES.
We tracked 4 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 4 market makers are providing $81K in liquidity, primarily on YES. YES wallets entered between 14c–17c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | YES | $65.1K | +6% | |
| 0xde7b..4b | MM | YES | $9.2K | -14% | |
| 0x5188..04 | MM | YES | $5.8K | -6% | |
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $1.3K | -1% |
YES wallets entered between 14c–17c, NO wallets at 86c. At current price 14c, 33% of YES holders are profitable vs none of the NO holders are profitable. YES side has the profitability advantage.
Polymarket prices YES at 14c with $14.1M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 66c. Significant 52-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 14c | $14.1M |
| Our Model | 66c | — |