AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 57c |
14%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 34c |
32%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 14c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 40c |
55%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
54%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 32c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 15c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $3.2K | -4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$3,164 on $3.2K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 14c | $212.6K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 32c | — | ✓ matched |