AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (3 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 29c |
42%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 52c |
4%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 55c |
45%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 29c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 40c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 41c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The lone tracked wallet faded Switzerland at 44c, implying smart money saw the group as more competitive than the market now prices. However, with just one wallet and an underwater entry, the signal is thin — the NO thesis hasn't been validated by follow-on capital, and the YES drift to 58c suggests the broader market disagrees with this early skeptic.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $1.6K | -34% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,069 on $1.6K capital deployed (avg +66.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 40c | $594.8K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 41c | — | × missed |