AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (4 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 68c |
36%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 45c |
10%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 48c |
35%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 56c |
45%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 56c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 55c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money entered Team Spirit at 28c and is holding through the rally to 36c, signaling conviction rather than a quick flip. The one-sided positioning — YES-only with no NO hedge — reads as a directional bet on Spirit's Major run, though the thin single-wallet sample limits how much weight this signal carries on its own.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $2.0K | +2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,999 on $2.0K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 28c | $1.7M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 55c | — | × missed |