AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (3 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 7c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 9c |
85%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 13c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet positioned NO at 85c, signaling early conviction that Boston would not capture the title — a thesis now fully validated. No smart money has rotated into YES at distressed prices, indicating tracked wallets see no residual probability worth pricing. Direction remains decisively NO with no contrarian flow.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd81f..75 | MM | NO | $2.7K | +8% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$484 on $2.7K capital deployed (avg +17.6%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $13.4M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 13c | — | ✓ matched |