AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 58c |
16%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 36c |
28%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 19c |
65%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 17c |
65%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 40c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 17c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 29c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is quietly accumulating the Sabres longshot at deep-discount entries (13c), signaling a contrarian conviction bet rather than consensus positioning. The one-sided YES entry with zero tracked NO flow implies alpha wallets see asymmetric upside at current pricing, though thin participation (1 wallet) limits the strength of the directional signal.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $1.0K | -2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,038 on $1.0K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 12c | $231.4K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 29c | — | ✓ matched |