AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 60c |
20%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 72c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 75c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 79c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 77c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. 1 is classified as smart money. All 1 positioned YES — unanimous.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Smart | YES | $1.4K | +2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$896 on $1.4K capital deployed (avg +64.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 64c | $276.0K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 77c | — | ✓ matched |