AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 3 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 29c |
42%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 14c |
72%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 17c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 83c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd48a..90 | MM | NO | $3.6K | +4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$738 on $3.6K capital deployed (avg +20.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 14c | $1.9M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 17c | — | ✓ matched |