Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 27, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $397.9K

Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference?

Q: How did 'Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 27, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 27

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (5 of 7 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (5 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 5 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	5c	90%
Compound Signal	NO	28c	44%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	8c	75%
Gemini Flash	NO	25c	70%
Kimi Macro	NO	10c	80%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 15c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 85c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde04..37	Retail	NO	$2.5K	+5%
This Market Entered at 85c → now 50c (+5%), $2.5K on NO Activity · 9 events · Mar 07 → May 27 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 07BUYNO53+$8$8 Mar 17BUYNO58+$3$12 Apr 03BUYNO54+$5$17 Apr 05BUYNO64+$65$85 Apr 30BUYNO51+$23$90 May 01BUYNO52+$16$108 May 23BUYNO68+$340$480 May 25BUYNO89+$2,039$2,665 May 27BUYNO94+$295$3,129 Realized— Unrealized+$155 Total Profit+$155 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 892 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked NO Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$448 on $2.5K capital deployed (avg +17.7%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

100% in profit

YES positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	10c	$397.9K	0c
AI Consensus	15c	—	✓ matched

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