AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 69c |
38%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 98c |
95%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 98c |
95%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 95c |
80%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 94c |
85%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 81c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money entered YES at 87c well before the current 94c level, signaling early conviction that the investigation would be dropped. The dominant_side NO label conflicts with actual wallet positioning — the tracked alpha is directionally long YES, suggesting the crowd's NO tilt is retail noise rather than informed flow.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $4.6K | +8% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$684 on $4.6K capital deployed (avg +15.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $110.6K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 81c | — | ✓ matched |