As of October 4, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?” at 92% YES with $53K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 92% probability to: will the democrats win the arizona governor race in 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moModels are divided — no strong consensus on direction. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | YES | 90c | 66% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 92c | 55% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 45c | 70% |
| AI Gemini Flash | ??? | 50c | 10% |
| AI Kimi Macro | ??? | 55c | 25% |
3 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (90–98c vs 92c). Claude Analysis leads with 66% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 93c — market prices it at 92c. 1-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on YES with entries at 89c, now sitting on a 3c gain per contract. This concentrated smart-money stance signals conviction that Democrats hold the Arizona governor's race, with the entry near current pricing suggesting the wallet is not chasing but rather confirming the market's direction. With no offsetting NO exposure, the wallet's positioning implies continued confidence in a Democratic win.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $4.6K | +4% |
With YES trading at 92c, every YES position entered between 89c and 89c is in profit, while no NO entries exist to show losses. The absence of any NO-side participation means there is no losing cohort applying downward pressure, leaving the 92c level supported by a purely profitable YES book. This one-sided profit structure reduces the incentive to sell and reinforces the elevated price.
Polymarket prices YES at 92c with $53K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 93c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 92c | $53K |
| Our Model | 93c | — |