As of September 30, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?” at 22% YES with $125K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 22% probability to: will the democrats win the florida governor race in 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/8 models agree on NO, fair value 17c vs market 22c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 22c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 87c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 89c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 67c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 86c | 76% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 85c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | ??? | 31c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 83c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 85c | 78% |
7 of 8 models estimate NO fair value above market (67–89c vs 78c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 83c — market prices it at 78c. 5-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 74c, signaling conviction that Democrats will not flip the Florida governor's mansion in 2026. That entry price implies the wallet saw roughly 74% probability for Republicans and is now profiting as the market repriced toward 78% NO. With no YES entries from tracked wallets, there is no smart-money counterweight visible to challenge the bearish Democratic thesis.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4488..19 ★ | Retail | NO | $3.9K | +6% |
Every tracked YES position is underwater at a 22c mark, while all NO entries taken at 74c are in profit, confirming the market has moved decisively against Democrats. The absence of profitable YES holders removes any cushion of conviction buying that could slow further downside. With NO holders sitting on gains, the 22c level reflects a market where the dominant side has both the P&L and the incentive to defend its position.
Significant 60-cent gap: Polymarket at 22c vs Kalshi at 82c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 17c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 22c | $125K |
| Kalshi | 82c | — |
| Our Model | 17c | — |