As of September 30, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?” at 42% YES with $341K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 42% probability to: will the democrats win the iowa senate race in 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/6 models agree on NO, fair value 20c vs market 42c. BUY NO at 42c — models see 22c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 65c | 48% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 70c | 55% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 71% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 75c | 70% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 78% |
6 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (65–98c vs 58c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 80c — market prices it at 58c. 22-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 52c, signaling conviction that Democrats will not win the Iowa Senate seat. With no YES entries from this wallet, the smart-money read is a clean bearish stance on Democratic odds. This positioning suggests the market may still be overpricing YES relative to informed expectations.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xeb6f..f0 | MM | NO | $2.7K | +12% |
With YES at 42c, every YES position is underwater while all NO entries at 52c are in profit, creating a one-sided P&L picture. The absence of profitable YES holders removes any incentive to defend the 42c level, leaving the price vulnerable to further downside. NO holders sitting on gains have little reason to exit, reinforcing downward pressure on YES.
Significant 19-cent gap: Polymarket at 42c vs Kalshi at 61c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 20c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 42c | $341K |
| Kalshi | 61c | — |
| Our Model | 20c | — |