Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
YES
57c
NO
43c
As of October 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?” at 57% YES with $1.2M traded. 5 tracked wallets hold a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 57% probability to: will the democrats win the maine senate race in 2026?.
On this market: 6/8 models independently agree NO — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis
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6 of 8 models estimate NO fair value above market (57–71c vs 43c). Gemini Flash leads with 72% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 61c — market prices it at 43c. 18-point gap supports NO.
Why One Model Disagrees: Compound Signal dissents at 51c — Signal score 2 (MODERATE), 55% backtest accuracy on NO side. Blended fair value: 51% YES.
2 of 5 Wallets Are Politics Specialists
Despite 100% profitability across both sides, the dominant side is NO, meaning more tracked capital is positioned against a Democratic Maine Senate win. NO entries at 28c-39c indicate those wallets bought when the market was far more bearish on Democrats, and their continued holding into a 57c YES price signals conviction that the current YES premium is overextended. The YES entries at 52c are marginal and clustered, offering weak directional signal compared to the broader NO positioning.
All five tracked wallets are in profit, with YES holders up from 52c entries against a 57c mark and NO holders up from 28c-39c entries. The NO side's deeper discount entries (28c-39c) imply larger percentage gains despite the higher current YES price, suggesting the market has repriced toward YES since those NO positions were opened. Current YES price at 57c sits above every tracked entry, so no tracked wallet is underwater.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
100%in profit
NO positions
100%in profit
Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 25 Cents
Significant 25-cent gap: Polymarket at 57c vs Kalshi at 32c. Polymarket traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 39c.
What are the current odds for Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 57% YES with $1.2M in total volume.
Where can I bet on Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
OddsShift tracks 5 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 39c YES. 6 models agree on direction.
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