As of September 30, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?” at 86% YES with $140K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 86% probability to: will the democrats win the new hampshire senate race in 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo5/6 models agree on YES, fair value 90c vs market 86c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | YES | 85c | 63% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 88c | 62% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | ??? | 62c | 28% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 85c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 92c | 78% |
5 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (85–98c vs 86c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 90c — market prices it at 86c. 4-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet is exclusively long YES at 81c, signaling conviction that Democrats hold the New Hampshire Senate seat. With no NO entries to counter, smart-money positioning is unambiguously bullish and consistent with the 86c market consensus. The entry 5c below current price indicates this wallet accumulated before the recent drift higher, implying informed early positioning rather than chasing.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xeb6f..f0 | MM | YES | $1.5K | +6% |
All tracked YES positions are in profit, with entries clustered at 81c against a current 86c mark, yielding roughly 5c of unrealized gain per share. No NO entries exist, so there is zero loss-side pressure or profit-taking incentive from shorts. This one-sided profitability at a high price suggests holders have little reason to exit, reinforcing support near 81-86c.
Polymarket prices YES at 86c with $140K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 90c. 4-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 86c | $140K |
| Our Model | 90c | — |