As of September 30, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?” at 60% YES with $510K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 60% probability to: will the democrats win the ohio senate race in 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moModels see 19-point mispricing — fair value 79c vs market 60c. BUY YES at 60c — models see 19c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | YES | 60c | 42% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 55c | 30% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 78c | 68% |
| AI Gemini Flash | ??? | 50c | 10% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 65c | 55% |
Models are split on direction. Average fair value estimate: 79c vs market 60c.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 79c — market prices it at 60c. 19-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 58c, positioning long before the current 60c mark and signaling early conviction on a Democratic Ohio Senate win. With no NO entries from this wallet, the smart-money read is one-directional bullish, though the sample size of one limits confidence. Their entry near the current price implies they see fair value at or above 60c, not a fading opportunity.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $6.0K | +3% |
YES holders are uniformly in profit, with entries at 58c against a current 60c price, implying modest but positive unrealized gains. The absence of NO entries at a loss suggests no seller pressure from underwater positions, leaving the 60c level supported by a clean YES book. This setup favors continued upside if new buyers step in, as there is no forced selling from losing shorts.
Significant 18-cent gap: Polymarket at 60c vs Kalshi at 42c. Polymarket traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 79c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 60c | $510K |
| Kalshi | 42c | — |
| Our Model | 79c | — |