Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
YES
82c
NO
18c
As of October 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?” at 82% YES with $356K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 82% probability to: will the democrats win the wisconsin governor race in 2026?.
On this market: 4/6 models independently agree YES — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis
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4 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (80–98c vs 82c). Gemini Flash leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 86c — market prices it at 82c. 4-point gap supports YES.
Why One Model Disagrees: Grok Contrarian dissents at 58c — Market's 82% YES heavily overweights current Dem incumbency and wallet concentration while ignoring WI's historical 1-3% margins, 2026 mi...
1 Active Wallets on This Market
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 72c, positioning it 10c in the money and signaling conviction in a Democratic Wisconsin governorship. With no NO entries on record, there is no smart-money counterweight to challenge that directional bet. The entry pattern points to informed accumulation on the YES side rather than hedging.
With YES trading at 82c against entries at 72c, every tracked YES position is in profit, creating a supportive holder base unlikely to capitulate. The absence of NO entries means no losing side is pressuring the price, reinforcing the 82c level as a floor rather than a ceiling. This one-sided profit structure favors continued YES strength absent new bearish flow.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
100%in profit
NO positions
0%in profit
Polymarket: 82c YES — $356K Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 82c with $356K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 86c. 4-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
What are the current odds for Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 82% YES with $356K in total volume.
Where can I bet on Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 86c YES. 4 models agree on direction.
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