AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 7c |
78%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Tracked smart money is positioned exclusively NO at 92c entries, a high-conviction fade of Denver's title odds. The absence of YES accumulation from alpha wallets at 6c signals no contrarian interest — smart money views remaining downside (6c → 0c) as more probable than any rebound. Direction: continued drift toward resolution NO.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4321..Dc | Retail | YES | $7.8K | -22% | |
| 0x16B1..8A | MM | YES | $4.8K | -24% | |
| 0x0072..75 | Retail | YES | $4.2K | -15% | |
| 0x1747..f0 | Retail | YES | $3.1K | -26% | |
| 0x35aC..a7 | Retail | YES | $1.7K | -29% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$31,456 on $31.5K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $8.2M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |