Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Apr 30, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $346.8K

Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?

Q: How did 'Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Apr 30, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · APR 30

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (3 of 6 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG

86c

100c

Stop Loss Target Final

3 of 6 Models Agreed: NO

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	32c	36%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	65c	60%
Grok Contrarian	NO	8c	70%
Gemini Flash	???	45c	65%
Kimi Macro	NO	9c	85%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 43c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 16c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xcaab..dd	MM	YES	$2.4K	-44%
This Market Entered at 16c → now 50c (-44%), $2.4K on YES Track Record 1mo on platform · 1578 trades · economics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1578) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,397 on $2.4K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	9c	$346.8K	0c
AI Consensus	43c	—	✓ matched

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