AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 74c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
78%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 86c |
40%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 88c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 92c |
86%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 74c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money positioning is minimal with only one wallet exposed, taking YES at a price that already implies ~92% probability of a 25 bps hike. The late entry at consensus pricing signals conviction in the ECB delivering the expected move rather than asymmetric alpha, suggesting follow-the-tape behavior rather than directional edge.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xe841..59 | Smart | YES | $1.5K | 0% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$122 on $1.5K capital deployed (avg +8.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 92c | $272.3K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 74c | — | ✓ matched |