Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Apr 16, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $136.0K

Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Pacific Division?

Q: How did 'Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Pacific Division?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Apr 16, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · APR 16

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (3 of 6 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

3 of 6 Models Agreed: NO

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	58c	16%
Compound Signal	NO	36c	28%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	58c	65%
Grok Contrarian	NO	20c	70%
Gemini Flash	???	40c	60%
Kimi Macro	NO	16c	65%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 38c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 12c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde04..37	Retail	YES	$1.1K	+36%
This Market Entered at 12c → now 50c (+36%), $1.1K on YES Track Record 1d on platform · 1028 trades · 100% win rate · other specialist Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1028 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,144 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	16c	$136.0K	0c
AI Consensus	38c	—	✓ matched

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