AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 1 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 7c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 20c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 7c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioned exclusively on NO at 84c, signaling early conviction that Edmonton would not capture the Western Conference. The absence of YES entries reinforces a one-sided directional read: tracked wallets saw no value in fading the NO thesis even at higher YES prices. Current 7c pricing validates the original NO entry — directional signal points to continued fade into resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | NO | $5.8K | +7% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,096 on $5.8K capital deployed (avg +18.8%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 7c | $108.2K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |