AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 17c |
66%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 39c |
22%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 27c |
62%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 17c |
72%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 67c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 33c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The lone tracked wallet is positioned NO, betting the Fed holds a consistent line across the Apr–Jun–Jul decisions rather than pivoting. Thin conviction — one wallet, no corroborating entries — makes this a weak directional signal, though the NO lean aligns with the base-rate expectation that the Fed rarely changes course three meetings running.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa4b3..b8 | Retail | NO | $3.6K | +3% | |
| 0xeb6f..f0 | MM | YES | $3.1K | +25% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,264 on $6.7K capital deployed (avg -33.8%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 23c | $325.6K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 33c | — | ✓ matched |