AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (4 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 44c |
12%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 85c |
62%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 44c |
62%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 38c |
62%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 56c |
55%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 35c |
62%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 50c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 48c, a contrarian bet against the 89c market-implied probability that the Fed will decide differently across the next three meetings. That entry signals the wallet expects policy continuity or a specific Fed path that contradicts the market's near-certain pricing of a change. With no YES entries from this wallet, there is no smart-money confirmation on the YES side, so the 89c price is driven by broader market consensus rather than tracked whale accumulation.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa4b3..b8 | Retail | NO | $1.1K | -39% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,104 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 90c | $357.3K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 50c | — | ✓ matched |