AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
75%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
75%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
85%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Tracked smart money is positioned exclusively NO, having entered at 70c when the cut was still a coin-flip — a high-conviction bet that the Fed holds in June. The 65c run in their favor validates the thesis: hawkish data flow has crushed cut odds, and smart money is unlikely to take profits this far from resolution. Directional signal points to NO continuing to grind toward 99c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa4b3..b8 | Retail | NO | $2.2K | +34% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$929 on $2.2K capital deployed (avg +42.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $30.9M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |