AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 9c |
62%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is unambiguously positioned against an October 25bp cut, with the lone tracked wallet holding NO from 82c and riding it toward resolution. The absence of any YES entries signals no conviction for a rate decrease, reinforcing a status-quo (no-cut) directional read into the October 2026 meeting.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa4b3..b8 | Retail | NO | $1.9K | +15% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$415 on $1.9K capital deployed (avg +22.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $17.8M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |