As of September 29, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?” at 48% YES with $55K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 48% probability to: will the fed hike–hike–hike in the next three decisions (sep–oct–dec)?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/6 models agree on NO, fair value 23c vs market 46c. BUY NO at 46c — models see 23c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 77c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 70c | 55% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 77c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 78c | 68% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 75c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 85c | 78% |
6 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (70–85c vs 54c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 77c — market prices it at 54c. 23-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet is exclusively positioned on NO, entering at 62c, which signals a clear bet against three consecutive Fed hikes. Because that NO entry is now underwater at a 46c YES price, the wallet is likely holding a losing contrarian position rather than reflecting smart-money confidence. Its one-sided NO exposure implies the dominant side is NO, but the poor entry level weakens the signal about true direction.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa4b3..b8 | Retail | NO | $6.6K | -20% |
With YES at 46c, no YES holders are in profit and no NO holders are in profit either, indicating the market has traded in a narrow band around current levels with no meaningful directional resolution. The lack of profitable positions on both sides suggests recent entries were made near present prices, so there is no strong unrealized P&L pressure forcing either side to capitulate. Price support at 46c is therefore fragile, as neither bulls nor bears have a cushion to defend.
Polymarket prices YES at 48c with $55K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 23c. Significant 25-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 48c | $55K |
| Our Model | 23c | — |