As of October 15, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?” at 11% YES with $51K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 11% probability to: will the fed hike–hike–pause in the next three decisions (sep–oct–dec)?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 15c vs market 11c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 95c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 72c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 88c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 78c | 45% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 86c | 80% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 78% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (72–95c vs 89c). Gemini Flash leads with 80% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 85c — market prices it at 89c. 4-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet shows no YES entries and a lone NO entry at 77c, positioning it entirely against a hike-hike-pause outcome. That 77c NO entry signals conviction that the Fed will not deliver two consecutive hikes followed by a pause across Sep–Oct–Dec, aligning with the dominant NO side. With only one wallet tracked, the signal is thin, but its profitable NO stance suggests informed positioning favors further YES weakness.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa4b3..b8 | Retail | NO | $7.0K | +15% |
With YES at 11c, all YES positions are underwater while every NO position is profitable, creating strong one-sided P&L pressure. The NO side's 100% profitability at 77c entries implies the market has repriced sharply lower on YES, leaving NO holders with substantial gains and little incentive to sell. This dynamic reinforces downside support for YES, as profit-taking on NO would only add further selling pressure.
Polymarket prices YES at 11c with $51K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 15c. 4-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 11c | $51K |
| Our Model | 15c | — |