Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Sep 16, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $42.2M

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Q: How did 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Sep 16, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · SEP 16

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (3 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (3 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 8 Models Agreed: YES

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	YES	88c	76%
PIN Model	YES	86c	72%
Compound Signal	YES	67c	34%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	82c	58%
Grok Contrarian	NO	38c	55%
Gemini Flash	YES	82c	85%
Kimi Macro	???	52c	35%
Claude Analysis	???	—	0%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 71c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

4 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Tracked wallets are predominantly positioned on the YES side, with entries spanning 51c to 80c, indicating early accumulation before the current 80c level. NO entries at 39c-51c are now deeply out of the money, signaling that contrarian bets have failed and smart money remains aligned with the hike scenario. This positioning supports further upside or stability at 80c, as no tracked wallet shows a profitable bearish stance.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xc021..a8 ★	Smart	YES	$5.6K	+28%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 54c → now 50c (+28%), $5.6K on YES Activity · 2 events · Aug 11 → Sep 10 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 11SELLYES40−$2,000$0 Sep 10BUYYES54+$6,480$6,480 Realized— Unrealized+$1,785 Total Profit+$1,785 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1132 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0xc658..84	MM	YES	$680.8K	+15%
This Market Entered at 68c → now 50c (+15%), $680.8K on YES Activity · 6 events · Aug 28 → Sep 11 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 28BUYYES50+$19,691$19,691 Aug 31BUYYES58+$21,114$44,071 Sep 07BUYYES50+$50,042$87,883 Sep 09BUYYES52+$15,600$106,907 Sep 10BUYYES62+$110,017$238,096 Sep 11BUYYES77+$365,621$660,312 Realized— Unrealized+$98,693 Total Profit+$98,693 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1760) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x69aa..47	MM	YES	$6.2K	-1%
This Market Entered at 80c → now 50c (-1%), $6.2K on YES Activity · 1 event · Sep 11 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 11BUYYES80+$6,212$6,212 Realized— Unrealized−$39 Total Profit−$39 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1272) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24de..cb	MM	YES	$3.0K	+56%
This Market Entered at 51c → now 50c (+56%), $3.0K on YES Activity · 1 event · Sep 07 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 07BUYYES51+$1,944$1,944 Realized— Unrealized+$1,087 Total Profit+$1,087 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (796) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xa4b3..b8	Retail	NO	$1.7K	-43%
This Market Entered at 51c → now 50c (-43%), $1.7K on NO Activity · 5 events · Jun 19 → Aug 26 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 19BUYNO63+$126$126 Jul 13BUYNO43+$2,643$2,728 Jul 13SELLNO52−$503$2,828 Jul 16BUYNO67+$2,038$5,681 Aug 26BUYNO68+$10$5,776 Realized+$85 Unrealized−$2,583 Total Profit−$2,498 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1432 trades).
0x5cd5..33 ★	Retail	YES	$1.4K	+1%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 79c → now 50c (+1%), $1.4K on YES Activity · 1 event · Sep 12 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 12BUYYES79+$1,403$1,403 Realized— Unrealized+$9 Total Profit+$9 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1852 trades).
0xde7b..4b	MM	NO	$1.2K	-47%
This Market Entered at 39c → now 50c (-47%), $1.2K on NO Activity · 1 event · Sep 10 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 10BUYNO39+$2,204$2,204 Realized— Unrealized−$1,045 Total Profit−$1,045 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1660) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$327,480 on $699.9K capital deployed (avg +46.8%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	80c	$42.2M	100c
AI Consensus	71c	—	✓ matched

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