As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?” at 50% YES with $18.6M traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Traders put 58% odds on no change, leaning against a September hike as the Fed weighs its next move.
Odds that the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September meeting have swung sharply higher after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered an unexpectedly hawkish address at Jackson Hole. The hike probability, which sat near 30% before his remarks, jumped to 47% as traders repriced a policy path that had earlier been tilted toward cuts. Markets now assign roughly a 57% chance to a 25-basis-point move, a dramatic reversal for a contract that resolves on September 16, 2026 based on the upper bound of the federal funds rate. Persistently elevated oil prices and sticky inflation readings drove the shift. [Intellectia, Sep 02]
The repricing matters because it marks the first time in months that a rate hike—rather than a cut—has re-entered the base case for the Federal Reserve. A firm CPI print and resilient employment data have kept core inflation above the 2% target, undercutting the disinflation narrative that dominated early-year forecasts. The last comparable hawkish pivot forced Treasury yields higher across the curve and pressured rate-sensitive equities. On August 30, the most active related contracts logged $12.0M in 24-hour volume and $9.7M in liquidity, underscoring how consequential the debate over whether the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September meeting has become. [Startuphub, Aug 30]
The near-term question remains whether the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September meeting or holds steady, with the no-change outcome still narrowly favored around 53.5%. Larger moves of 50+ bps in either direction are heavily discounted, each priced near 1.0%. Beyond September, the odds of a hike before 2027 have climbed to 66%, before July 2027 to 78%, and before 2028 to 83%, signaling that markets expect tighter policy to persist. Globally, central banks are echoing the theme: the RBNZ was expected to lift its Official Cash Rate by 25bps to 2.75% on September 2, with 27 of 31 economists forecasting the increase. The September 16 resolution will confirm whether the hawkish turn translates into action. [News, Aug 29]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moTracked wallets are positioned NO, but 3/6 models estimate YES. Wallets and models disagree — no entry.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 76c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | YES | 56c | 45% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 55c | 45% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 72c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 57c | 65% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 65c | 62% |
3 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (56–76c vs 50c). Gemini Flash leads with 65% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 63c — market prices it at 50c. 13-point gap supports YES.
Smart money appears split, with YES entries clustered at 54c and NO entries at 51c, suggesting a tight battle around the 50c equilibrium. The NO side is dominant in volume, but their 51c entries imply they expect the price to stay below that level, while YES buyers at 54c are betting on upward momentum. The lack of profitable wallets indicates these are recent positions, and the tight entry ranges suggest sophisticated traders are positioning for a decisive move rather than a prolonged stalemate.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc658..84 | MM | YES | $38.2K | -6% | |
| 0xa4b3..b8 | Retail | NO | $4.2K | -1% |
All tracked positions are currently at a loss, with both YES and NO holders underwater, indicating the market has moved against early entrants on both sides. The dominant NO side faces pressure as the YES price at 54c suggests recent buying, but with no profitable wallets, there is limited realized P&L to support either direction. Price support is weak, as neither side has a cushion to absorb further adverse moves.
Polymarket prices YES at 50c with $18.6M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 63c. Significant 13-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 50c | $18.6M |
| Our Model | 63c | — |