Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 5% YES on Polymarket with $2.4M in total trading volume.

95c

YES

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES).

Currently at 5%

Traded on Polymarket — $2.4M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $2.4M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 5c YES.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 5% YES with $2.4M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.