AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (4 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 62c |
24%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 39c |
22%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 15c |
72%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 38c |
55%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 48c |
61%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 31c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 22c |
68%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 36c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on YES, entering at 32c and now sitting on an 8c unrealized loss per share. That entry signals a directional bet on a Fed pause-pause-pause, but with the market repricing to 24c, the wallet is either holding through drawdown or has yet to adjust. With no NO entries from this wallet, there is no smart-money hedge or contrarian signal to read against the YES thesis.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa4b3..b8 | Retail | YES | $1.1K | -18% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,067 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 24c | $267.7K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 36c | — | ✓ matched |