Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 90% YES on Polymarket with $537K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

YES

90c

10c

Prediction markets give a 90% probability to: will the iranian regime survive u.s. military strikes?.

Currently at 90%

Traded on Polymarket — $537K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 90c YES with $537K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

PRO Analysis

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MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 9c

Smart money entered NO at 12c.

+300% TARGET YIELD

86c

100c

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 12c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x24c8..e1	MM	NO	$1.6K	-19%
This Market Entered at 12c → now 9c (-19%), $1.6K on NO Track Record 1mo on platform · 1570 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1570) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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No Positions Are Currently in Profit

NO wallets entered at 12c. At current price 90c, none of the NO holders are profitable vs none of the YES holders are profitable. Both sides have similar profitability — no structural edge.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 90c YES — $537K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 90c with $537K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 90c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	90c	$537K
Our Model	90c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 90% YES with $537K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes??

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.