Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (6 of 7 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Jul 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $1.3M

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Q: How did 'Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Jul 01, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUL 01

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 6 of 7 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 5 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	70c	40%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	84c	70%
Gemini Flash	YES	85c	65%
Kimi Macro	YES	95c	90%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 86c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x24c8..e1	MM	YES	$10.5K	+3%
This Market Entered at 92c → now 50c (+3%), $10.5K on YES Activity · 5 events · Apr 01 → Apr 30 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 01BUYYES89+$668$668 Apr 05BUYYES87+$489$1,142 Apr 15BUYYES92+$2,170$3,378 Apr 25BUYYES92+$7,360$10,738 Apr 30SELLYES92−$520$10,218 Realized+$2 Unrealized+$342 Total Profit+$345 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1584) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$968 on $10.5K capital deployed (avg +9.2%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	95c	$1.3M	100c
AI Consensus	86c	—	✓ matched

Back to Market Radar