Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 12% YES on Polymarket with $399K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?'?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

88c

YES

12c

Prediction markets give a 12% probability to: will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 30?.

Currently at 12%

Traded on Polymarket — $399K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 12c YES with $399K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

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Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

Smart money signal: 3 tracked wallets positioned NO with 0.3x conviction. Backed by $399K in trading volume.

PRO Analysis

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MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 88c

Smart money entered NO at 60c–75c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 3 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 3 market makers are providing $23K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 60c–75c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x5cd5..33	MM	NO	$10.5K	+17%
This Market Entered at 75c → now 88c (+17%), $10.5K on NO Track Record 30d on platform · 1830 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1830) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$7.6K	+45%
This Market Entered at 60c → now 88c (+45%), $7.6K on NO Track Record 13d on platform · 1954 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1954) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x4e25..a7	MM	YES	$5.2K	-76%
This Market Entered at 51c → now 12c (-76%), $5.2K on YES Track Record 1mo on platform · 1712 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1712) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 51c, NO wallets at 60c–75c. At current price 12c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 12c YES — $399K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 12c with $399K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 12c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	12c	$399K
Our Model	12c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 12% YES with $399K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30??

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.