AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 50c |
0%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 35c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 55c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 74c |
85%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 62c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xe25b..1b | MM | YES | $8.5K | +53% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$7,039 on $8.5K capital deployed (avg +83.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 84c | $140.2K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 62c | — | ✓ matched |